The best-laid plans based on the strongest evidence have fallen by the wayside across businesses everywhere.
If there is one thing that 2020 has taught me, it’s that making predictions for the future is a mug’s game.
But these times are, as we’re constantly told, unprecedented, and while looking ahead now is extremely difficult, what of predictions made in the past, when things were a bit more normal? What can we learn from looking back at what was predicted and what came to pass?
1995 and the stadiums of tomorrow
Football stadiums have always fascinated me.
When moving house last year, I came across one of the catalysts for this – the 1995 children’s football annual Shoot, in which Geraint John, the then chief architect of the Sport Council quango, predicted what stadiums would be like in the future.
According to the book, 21st century football grounds would be built for around £150m and feature sliding roofs. By 2010, each would have warmed seats with their own little televisions attached playing commentary to fans. Films would be screened before games to bring people in early while groundsmanship would become so advanced that the days of muddy goalmouths would end, and the venues would be used for major pop concerts as well as football.
The predictions don’t seem as futuristic as those made in Back to the Future II, in which the year 2015 was seen as one in which flying cars and hoverboards would be standard, but some were a little off, while others – like the concerts and quality of pitches – were spot on
For those who do dare to make public predictions about the future, one of the upsides is that they are mostly forgotten by the next wave of news or crystal-ball gazing, made soon after. And this was especially the case in the pre-internet era.
‘Einstein was wrong’
So when I tracked down Geraint John, now senior adviser to Populous, it was sporting of him to speak about how he thought stadiums would develop from the 1990s onwards and what they actually look like now.
“Albert Einstein wrote, ‘I never think of the future, it comes soon enough’. But I think Einstein was wrong – we have to think about the future to guide the present,” John tells me.
“What we do know is that predictions are part guesswork and part foresight, built on experience. The second law of thermodynamics states that the universe is in a continual state of change. Change is inevitable, and we have to prepare for it.”
John went on to work on many projects, including the London 2012 Olympic Games bid, and has curated exhibitions at the Olympic Museum in Lausanne.
Last year he released a book, Olympic Stadia: Theatres of Dreams, co-written with journalist and civil engineer Dave Parker. The book, a comprehensive history of Olympic stadiums in the modern era, contains a final chapter on what stadiums of the future might look like.
Of course, the guesswork involved does make it impossible to guess everything accurately, but some elements of his past predictions have been proved right.
“We do indeed see much improved comfort for fans in their seats, although warmed seats are still a rarity,” John says. “The prediction that every seat would have a personal TV monitor has not happened, although there were some experiments. This is an example of technological advancement in society far exceeding anything we could have predicted back then. Almost everyone at a ground now will have a screen in their pocket, making seat-based monitors irrelevant.
“In fact, we have gone in the other direction and there have been huge developments in the big screens in stadia, with the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as the latest example. The wonderful result here is that the original purpose of the stadium – spectators watching an event together – is reinforced, rather than everyone focused on their own little screen.”
Looking back to 25 years ago, John reflects that sliding roofs providing shelter at all new grounds did not come to pass, but they have been used at some, including Wimbledon and Wembley Stadium.
“This has generally been undertaken on a case-by-case basis rather than as a staple of design, and where it has been used the results have often been very productive. The Principality Stadium in Cardiff, opened in 1999, has a sliding roof that totally encloses the interior and creates a simply terrific atmosphere, which, as an unbiased Welshman, I can safely say is the best in the world,” he says.
So what about the future?
His recent book cites sustainability and security as two major factors that are now key parts of designing stadiums, both of which were far less cited in the 1990s.
Based on current trends, Olympic stadiums of the future “are likely to be leaner and greener, stripped down to their essential features, cheaper to build and operate, easier to convert into a realistic and economic legacy use”, the book says.
More widespread use of timber structures is predicted for environmental reasons, while it is increasingly likely that more austere measures – such as refitting existing venues for the Games – could be adopted in future by authorities not wanting to be lumbered with white elephants.
Looking at the absence of fans at the few sporting events currently taking place across the world new questions over the future of stadium builds already spring to mind – Will crowds be allowed inside soon? Will social distancing featured have to be introduced? Is better ventilation going to be needed to keep spectators safe?
The only thing that seems definite now is that more things will definitely change.
Original Article by:
https://www.constructionnews.co.uk
